CELPIP Speaking Task 4 asks you to move from visible evidence to a future possibility. The vocabulary challenge is calibration: might, is likely to, and will definitely do not express the same confidence.
Vocabulary is one official Speaking performance dimension. Precise certainty language helps task fulfillment, but no phrase maps automatically to a level. Continue at the CELPIP vocabulary hub or Exam English hub.
Build an evidence chain
Use three parts:
visible cue → degree of certainty → predicted event
“Because the cyclist is approaching the crowded gate, he may slow down before entering.”
The cue supports the prediction. He may win a race tomorrow has no visible basis.
A practical certainty scale
- might / may / could: possible;
- is likely to / will probably: probable;
- appears about to: immediate event suggested by posture or movement;
- will definitely: near certainty—rarely justified by a single picture.
Must can express logical inference (They must be waiting), but it may sound too certain when several explanations fit.
Worked scene
Visible details: dark clouds, several people closing umbrellas near a café, and a server moving chairs under an awning.
“The weather is likely to improve soon because several people are closing their umbrellas. The server may move the remaining chairs back onto the terrace. However, the dark clouds are still visible, so another shower is possible.”
The response supports each claim and allows competing cues. It does not invent private motives.
Frequent errors
- maybe and may be: “Maybe it will rain”; “It may be wet.”
- stacking: maybe it will probably...
- certainty without evidence: will definitely;
- describing the present instead of predicting;
- inventing an unseen backstory.
For scene description before prediction, see CELPIP Task 3 spatial vocabulary and CELPIP Tasks 3 and 4 vocabulary.
Practice
Cue: a shopper is holding a torn bag while oranges roll across the floor. Complete three predictions: one possible, one probable, and one immediate-looking. Keep each claim tied to the cue.
Calibrate both likelihood and timing
Prediction language carries two separate judgments: how likely an event is and when it may happen. Could marks possibility but says nothing about timing. Is about to suggests an immediate event, usually because a visible movement is already underway. “The glass is close to the table’s edge, so it could fall” is possible; “the glass is tipping, so it appears about to fall” adds immediate evidence.
Use will probably and is likely to for supported probability. In ordinary predictions, they are close in meaning: “The queue will probably grow” and “The queue is likely to grow.” Grammar differs: likely takes be + likely + to-infinitive; “it likely to grow” is incomplete. Probably normally comes after will but before a main verb.
Avoid treating percentages as if a picture supplied data. Saying “there is an 80 percent chance” creates false precision unless the fictional context actually provides that figure.
Match claims to cue strength
One cue may support several outcomes, so identify the shortest defensible step.
- Cue: a child is reaching toward a balloon caught in a branch. Supported: “An adult may help retrieve it.” Unsupported: “The family will buy a new balloon tomorrow.”
- Cue: a bus is at the stop and a passenger is running toward it. Supported: “The passenger may try to signal the driver.” Overcertain: “The driver will definitely wait.”
- Cue: a server is carrying a tray that is visibly tilted. Supported: “One of the drinks appears about to spill.” Too remote: “The restaurant will change its training policy.”
The evidence does not need to prove the outcome. It needs to make that outcome a reasonable continuation.
Use competing evidence
Pictures can contain cues that pull in different directions. Although, however, and unless help you acknowledge them.
“Although the players are gathering their equipment, the referee is still speaking to them, so the game may resume rather than end.”
Unless introduces a condition that would prevent the prediction: “The outdoor event is likely to continue unless the dark clouds move closer.” Do not add conditions randomly; they should arise from visible or stated uncertainty.
Original worked response: a damaged display
Visible details: a store employee kneeling beside a leaning display, two customers stepping away, and another employee carrying a barrier.
“The leaning display appears unstable, so the employee beside it is likely to ask customers to keep their distance. The two shoppers are already stepping away and will probably move into the next aisle. Because another employee is carrying a barrier, the area may be closed temporarily while the display is secured. The kneeling employee seems about to remove an item from the bottom shelf, although it is also possible that she is inspecting the base. Once the barrier is in place, staff could move the remaining products to a safer location. I cannot tell whether the display will be repaired or replaced, but an immediate safety check is likely.”
The response makes several bounded predictions rather than one invented narrative. Appears about to is reserved for an observable movement. The speaker explicitly keeps two interpretations open and declines to predict an unseen business decision.
Understanding is only the first step.
Lyra Practice helps you retrieve and use high-value workplace expressions in realistic situations until they feel natural.
Start a practice session →Keep description and prediction in balance
A cue must be stated, but repeating the entire scene uses time without moving forward. “A woman is opening an umbrella” is description. “Because she is opening an umbrella, the people beside her may move under the shelter” adds a prediction. A useful pattern is one short cue plus one outcome, followed by another part of the scene.
Do not confuse intention with outcome. “He appears to be preparing to lift the box” describes an apparent intention. “He may ask for help before lifting it” predicts a possible action. “He will carry it home” adds an unseen destination.
Controlled practice
1. Rank certainty
Put these from least to most certain: will probably, might, will definitely, is likely to.
Answer: might → will probably / is likely to → will definitely. The two middle forms are broadly comparable; context and delivery can create small differences, but neither expresses certainty.
2. Choose the supported prediction
Cue: a dog is pulling toward an open picnic basket while its owner faces away. A. The dog may approach the basket. B. The owner will become a veterinarian. C. The picnic will definitely be cancelled.
Answer: A. The dog’s direction and the open basket support a near continuation. B has no visual chain, and C overstates both event and certainty.
3. Repair the grammar
Incorrect: “The cyclist likely to stop.”
Answer: “The cyclist is likely to stop.” Alternatively, “The cyclist will probably stop.” Likely to requires a form of be.
4. Distinguish immediate from possible
Cue A: a closed bottle stands near an elbow. Cue B: the bottle is falling sideways from the table. Match could be knocked over and appears about to hit the floor.
Answer: Cue A → could be knocked over, because the event is only possible. Cue B → appears about to hit the floor, because motion supplies immediate evidence.
5. Add a counter-cue
Complete: “The family is packing the picnic, so they are likely to leave; however, ____.” Use the visible cue one person is unfolding another blanket.
Model answer: “The family is packing the picnic, so they are likely to leave; however, one person is unfolding another blanket, so they may remain longer.” The second cue genuinely weakens the first prediction instead of changing topics.
6. Remove false precision
Repair: “There is a 95 percent chance that the waiter will drop the tray.”
Answer: “Because the tray is tilted, the waiter may drop it.” The revision preserves the evidence while removing an unsupported numerical claim.
Distinguish evidence strength
A visible cue can support more than one future, but not all futures are equally likely. A person reaching toward a falling cup supports They may catch it and The cup may hit the floor. It does not support They will buy a new table tomorrow.
Rank the prediction by asking:
- Is the event already beginning?
- Is there a direct physical cue?
- Are several alternative outcomes still plausible?
- Did I add information the image cannot show?
If an event is visibly beginning, is about to may fit. When alternatives remain, may or could is safer.
Grammar of probability
- will probably + base verb: “The bus will probably stop.”
- is likely to + base verb: “The bus is likely to stop.”
- may/might/could + base verb: “The bus might stop.”
- there is a chance that + clause: “There is a chance that the queue will grow.”
Avoid will likely to stop and maybe will probably stop. The first combines two structures; the second stacks markers.
Multiple predictions from one scene
Visible scene: a picnic table is covered with loose paper; wind is bending nearby branches; one person is reaching for the papers while another closes a bag.
“Some of the papers are likely to blow off the table because the wind is already lifting their edges. The person nearest the table may gather them while the other person finishes closing the bag. They could move the picnic under the shelter, although the image does not show whether that space is available.”
The first prediction has direct evidence and receives stronger language. The final possibility depends on information outside the frame, so could and a boundary are appropriate.
Prediction versus intention
A gesture does not always reveal intention. If someone points at a bus, you can say They may be directing another person’s attention to the bus. They have decided to travel across the country invents an internal plan. When the cue supports an immediate action, describe the action rather than a complex motive.
Controlled practice with rationales
1. A runner is centimetres from a finish line. Which phrase best fits?
A. “The runner is about to cross the line.” B. “The runner might start a company.” C. “The runner definitely won yesterday.”
Answer: A. The event appears immediate and is supported by position.
2. Two people look toward dark clouds. Which is best calibrated?
A. “A storm will certainly destroy the event.” B. “They may move the event indoors if the weather worsens.” C. “They are meteorologists.”
Answer: B. It marks a conditional possibility without inventing identity or consequence.
3. Which sentence is grammatical?
A. “They will probably leave.” B. “They are likely leave.” C. “They may to leave.”
Answer: A. The alternatives require likely to leave and may leave.
A two-column rehearsal
Before speaking, divide notes into cue and prediction. Write three visible cues and one plausible outcome for each. During review, listen for any prediction that lacks a cue. Either add the visible evidence or remove the claim. Then check whether your modal matches the evidence strength. This method produces variety through reasoning, not through random synonym replacement.
Sources
- CELPIP test format and scoring — CELPIP
- CELPIP free resources — CELPIP
- CELPIP Speaking Pro study pack — Prometric
Related
- CELPIP Task 8 unusual-situation vocabulary
- CELPIP Task 2 story-sequencing vocabulary
- CELPIP vocabulary by task
To practise precise prediction vocabulary, try Lyra Practice.
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